Monday, November 3, 2008

Tomorrow is the Election--My Final Prediction

First--we will not know until late...probably Wednesday morning...as many States remain to close to call well into Tuesday night, specifically: FL, OH, PA, VA and probably MO, NH, and NV.

Eastern time zone (mostly around 7pm)

Early calls :

Most of New England (save NH) will be called early for The One: CT, MA, ME, NJ, NY, RI, and VT for a total of 69 EVs as will several of the Mid-Atlantic States: DC, DE, and MD for an additional 16 EVs

Most of the Southeast (save FL) will be called early for McCain: GA, SC, and NC for a total of 38 EVs

FL, OH, NH, PA, and VA will be too close to call early...

Central time zone (most close at 8 pm EST)

Most of the Upper Midwest will be surprisingly close and not immediately called at first: MI, MN, WI, IA, and MO will not be called for a little while...about an hour after their polls close...

Early calls

The One: IL for 21

McCain: AL, AR, KS, KY, MS, ND, NE, OK, SD, TN, and TX for 96 EVs

By the end of the hour I think IA, MN and WI will be called for The One for an additional 27 EVs and IN (11 EVs) will be called for McCain

Right before the Mountain Time Zone close (most around 9pm EST), all but FL, MI, MO, OH, PA, and VA will be called...I think by then NH will be called for The One...

Totals:
The One 144 EVs
McCain 161 EVs

Mountain time zone (most close at 9 pm EST)

Most of these States (save CO, NM, and NV) will be called early and all for McCain: AZ, ID, MT, UT and WY add 25 EVs to McCain

Some time during this hour, I expect MI to be called for The One (17 EVs) and FL and MO to be called for McCain (38 EVs)...

Right before 10pm...

The One 161 EVs
McCain 224 EVs

Pacific Time Zone (most close at 10pm)

Early calls:

CA, OR, and WA to The One 73EVs

By the end of the hour (11 pm)...

NM is called for The One (5 EVs)

while OH and VA are called for McCain (33 EVs)

By midnight, I expect the map to have 3 remaining toss-ups (CO, NV, and PA) and AK and HI pending for a total of :

The One 234 EVs
McCain 262 EVs

Alaska and Hawaii are not in contention, so one could figure +3 for McCain and +4 for The One...making it effectively 238 to 265

At this point, McCain would only need one of the remaining states to win...

My final prediction: McCain wins, picking up both NV and PA...286 to 252


6 comments:

jpb2525 said...

You are really grasping here. Not as close as you think in PA. Not to mention, you have Grampy McSame sweeping all of the swing states....that is a hope and a prayer .....I will be auditing your predictions. It shouldn't be hard to see your predictions crumble quickly. But thanks for the scary scenario!

jpb2525 said...

First results in ...Dixville Notch NH - Grampy McSame: 6 votes... Obama: 15 votes (usually a republican area.......)

jpb2525 said...

Pennsylvania - called. Check.

jpb2525 said...

New Hampshire. Check.

jpb2525 said...

Ohio. Obama. Check-mate!

jpb2525 said...

um. Nope. You might want to fine tune your prediction compass.

I love you Jimmy!