Election update--43 days until Election Day!

My analysis of the financial mess is coming...I promise!

Here is the status of the race as of today (and over the weekend):

Electoral-vote.com has a good overview of several new polls over the weekend (a total of 34 state polls--15 released on Saturday, 11 on Sunday, and 8 today).

Iowa seems to no longer be in play...in several polls, The One has shown significant leads (+11, +7, +14). However, might we have some more states becoming swingers? Maine is within the margin of error (The One +4) and Washington has tightened (The One +6); however, The One has been consistently ahead in both, so unless the wheels are coming off (wishful thinking on my part), I do not see these really being in play. Indiana continues to surprise with McCain showing only a 2-3 point lead. Indiana has been a solidly red state, though, and McCain has been consistently ahead there, so again, I do not think it is really in play either. Missouri continues to track toward McCain, with the latest poll showing a McCain +4. Missouri, which has been a swing state over the last several cycles, has been fairly consistently in McCain's column as well--I no longer think it is in play either.

The polls in FL, MI, MN, OH, PA, and VA over the weekend continue to show that these are indeed the ones to watch this year (along with NM, CO, NV, and NH). I believe that like IN and MO, Florida and Virginia are not really in play this year. McCain has shown a consistent lead in both (although only by 1-2 points currently in FL and 2 points in VA--the smallest amount in a while) and the strength of the military in both states make me think that the margin will not be that close in November. Meanwhile in MN, while only showing a 1 point lead for The One in today's poll, is unlikely to switch to red this year (although I will keep hoping!).

That leaves the Lake Erie states--OH, PA and MI. In the polls released this weekend, The One shows a lead in each of the states with Ohio continuing to be the closest (and the one with the most electoral votes). Ohio polled for The One +2 in one polll and for McCain +6 in antoher. Pennsylvania increasingly seems to be tilting back to The One, with a +5 advantage in the latest poll, while Michigan showed The One ahead in three polls by +1, +2, and +9.

Current electoral prediction (270 needed to win):
Saturday--McCain 265, Obama 273
Sunday--McCain 265, Obama 273
Today--McCain 265, Obama 273

Watch an animated map of the electoral vote since June...