Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Seven Days to Go--The Race Continues to be Close

Latest data has the national polls closing:

Gallup (10/28): The One +2 (49 - 47)
--change McCain +3 from 10/26, McCain +5 from 10/20

Zogby (10/28): The One +4 (49 - 45)
--change McCain +1 from 10/26, McCain +8 from 10/22

GWU Battleground (10/28): The One +3 (49 - 46)
--change McCain +1 from 10/22, McCain +10 from 10/13

IBD (10/27): The One +2.8 (47 - 44.2)
--change McCain +1.1 from 10/25, McCain +3.2 from 10/21

Rasmussen (10/28): The One +5 (51-46)
--change McCain +3 from 10/26

As for the swing states (I count nine)...I suspect we will see these begin to really tighten this week as the pollsters change their primary focus from getting headlines (OBAMA UP 12 POINTS!!!!) to getting the models to be the closest to the actual results (after all, that will make them more marketable next cycle...)

FL (27 EV) Tied (Zogby 10/23-26)

PA (21 EV) The One +9 (Temple University 10/20-26)

OH (20 EV) The One +4 (Rasmussen 10/26)

VA (13 EV) The One +4 (Rasmussen 10/26)

MO (11 EV) Tied (Survey USA 10/25-26)

CO (9 EV) The One +4 (Rasmussen 10/26)

NV (5 EV) The One +4 (Zogby 10/27)

NM (5 EV) (no major polls in two weeks)

NH (4 EV) The One +5 (Marist College 10/22-23)

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