32 Days to Election Day--Time for an Update!

We have definitely seen a move toward The One over the last week with the financial mess as the focus of everyone. This is expected since this happened on President Bush's watch, even though the Democrats were more than complicit in the mortgage market meltdown (as seen in my posts here, here, and here) .

I think that it may indeed be temporary as I believe that the "Crap Sandwich" will finally be off the table after today (hopefully with another failure led by the strange bedfellows of conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats--who would have thought that I could agree with the likes of Dennis Kucinich!) .

I also think there will be a McCain bounce from the VP debate last night. Governor Palin did what she needed to do. Like I said about the first presidential debate, I think one party won on substance, but the other won on greatly exceeding expectations. In this case, I think that Senator Biden's mastery of the subjects and his delivery (for the most part) give him a slight edge; however, Governor Palin greatly exceeded the expectations and I think that the way she was talking directly to the American people in the folksy manner she has will connect with the Midwestern voters (although, even I tired of it by the end...but that might be the influence of a dozen years of elite East Coast influence).

So, where are we today? Electoral-Vote.com has The One ahead 338 to 185 and 15 (NC) tied. Real Clear Politics has The One ahead 353 to 185. I think both of these are overstated somewhat and feel it is more likely 278 to 260.
Electoral-Vote.com shows The One ahead slightly in VA, OH, CO, NV, NH, and FL and Senator McCain slightly ahead in IN and MO. Now, I do not for a minute think that The One has a chance in the Hoosier State, and most polls in the Show-Me State have had McCain consistently ahead. At the same time, I do not for a minute think that The One can possibly win the Tar Heel State.

Over the past four days:

• Two polls have The One ahead in CO by only 1 point
• Four polls in OH with The One ahead in two (+8 and +2) and McCain ahead in two (+1 in both)
• Two polls in MN with The One ahead in one (+11--likely an outlier) and McCain ahead in one (+1)
• Two polls in NC with The One ahead in one (+3) and McCain ahead in one (+3)
• Five polls in VA with The One ahead in four (+3, +9, +6, +3) and McCain ahead in one (+6)
• Six polls in FL with The One ahead in four (+4, +3, +7, +4), McCain ahead in one (+1) and one tied